The tree · branch 2 of 8

Damaged DNA

Mutations that accumulate in a cell's DNA over a lifetime, and the shortening of the protective caps on the ends of chromosomes each time a cell divides.

Of the twelve published hallmarks of ageing, this branch groups 2: mutations accumulating in DNA and the shortening of chromosome ends.

Where this branch stands

required: the year cannot arrive until this branch is handled; handled when 2 treatments are in the clinic

2040handled, in the middle run
0of 4 in the clinic already
first humanfurthest stage reached

Nothing under this branch is in the clinic yet. In each run of the model a year is drawn for every treatment from its range, and the branch counts as handled when the second of those years arrives. Across all the runs, the middle year this branch is handled is 2040.

4 treatments and tools

listed by how soon each could reach its next rung

A gene is edited inside a person's body to stop an age-related disease First human clinic likely 2030, 2028 to 2042
Next rung within 1 to 5 years. Most gene editing so far has been done on cells taken out of the body and put back.
A drug lengthens the ends of chromosomes in a person First human clinic likely 2036, 2030 to 2070
Next rung within 5 to 20 years. The caps on chromosome ends (telomeres) shorten with each cell division and with age, and some people inherit faults that shorten them fast, so their bone marrow and lungs fail young.
The mutation behind a premature-ageing disease is corrected in a living animal Shown in animals clinic likely 2038, 2032 to 2080
Next rung within 5 to 20 years. Progeria is a disease in which one wrong letter in one gene makes children age fast and die in their teens.
A gene therapy lengthens the ends of chromosomes in an old animal, with no rise in cancer Shown in animals clinic likely 2044, 2036 to not this century
Next rung more than 20 years away, if ever. Each time a cell divides, the protective caps on the ends of its chromosomes (telomeres) get a little shorter, and a cell whose caps run out stops dividing.

What would move this

the next test each treatment needs, and the branch's own line

A gene therapy for a single ageing-related mutation with a measured result in people, or a treatment that lengthens chromosome ends in a living animal with no rise in cancer.

A gene is edited inside a person's body to stop an age-related disease Next rung: in clinical use. A regulator somewhere has approved it, or it is in routine use in a named clinical setting, so a doctor can give it to a patient outside a trial. Settled by the peer-reviewed trial report; the trial registry; the regulator's approval record for the clinic rung.
A drug lengthens the ends of chromosomes in a person Next rung: in clinical use. A regulator somewhere has approved it, or it is in routine use in a named clinical setting, so a doctor can give it to a patient outside a trial. Settled by the peer-reviewed report; the regulator's approval record for the clinic rung.
The mutation behind a premature-ageing disease is corrected in a living animal Next rung: first human. At least one person has had it, with a public record of that result. Settled by peer-reviewed reports; the trial registry and report when a first person is treated; the regulator's approval record for the clinic rung.
A gene therapy lengthens the ends of chromosomes in an old animal, with no rise in cancer Next rung: first human. At least one person has had it, with a public record of that result. Settled by peer-reviewed reports; the trial registry and report when a first person is treated; the regulator's approval record for the clinic rung.

Its history

the handled year, computation by computation

The year was first computed on 17 October 2026, with this branch handled in the middle run by 2040. Every estimate under it is still a first pass. From the second computation on, this section charts the branch's handled year run by run, so a reader who sees the year at the top move can tell which branch moved it.

What the story so far says about it

the promises, the self-experiments and the papers that bear on this branch

Promised, in public

2009Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman: By about 2029, the means to reprogram human biology and change genes so as to live decades longer than a long life now (their bridge two), with circulating nanorobots within the same two decades; bridge three, living indefinitely, undated beyond following in turn. Verdict: not yet due, due 2029.

Tried on themselves, in public

September 2015Elizabeth ParrishEnded. A claim about one person is a story, not a record, and it moves nothing on this branch.

On the record

25 February 2025Clinical Use of ZSCAN4 for Telomere Elongation in Hematopoietic Stem CellsMyers and 7 others.
2 March 2026Intellia Therapeutics Announces FDA Lift of Clinical Hold on MAGNITUDE Phase 3 Clinical Trial in ATTR-CMInc..
7 October 2024Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first centuryOlshansky and 3 others.
3 January 2023Hallmarks of aging: An expanding universeLópez-Otín and 4 others.
6 June 2013The Hallmarks of AgingLópez-Otín and 4 others.
12 May 2022Foreword to the Aubrey de Grey and Charles Brenner debate (Let's Talk Longevity newsletter)Gobel.
15 June 2004Escape Velocity: Why the Prospect of Extreme Human Life Extension Matters NowGrey.
15 May 2012Telomerase gene therapy in adult and old mice delays aging and increases longevity without increasing cancerJesus and 6 others.

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