{
  "computed_on": "2026-10-19",
  "method": {
    "document": "docs/method.md",
    "status": "Decided 2026-10-16; the lag (parameter 2) went to the outside review of 2026-10-17, which produced no published figure for it, and stays a first guess by my ruling of 2026-10-17",
    "runs": 200000,
    "seed": 2004,
    "lag_years": {
      "earliest": 3,
      "likely": 8,
      "latest": 15
    },
    "before_year": 2050,
    "century_end": 2100,
    "draw": "a triangle over each leaf's earliest, likely and latest clinic year; the lag likewise; all draws independent",
    "combination": "the latest handled year across the required branches, plus the lag; a branch is handled when its handled_when-th leaf is in clinical use"
  },
  "median_year": 2058,
  "before_2050": 0.0427,
  "after_2100": 0.0,
  "percentiles": {
    "p5": 2050,
    "p25": 2054,
    "p50": 2058,
    "p75": 2062,
    "p95": 2069
  },
  "histogram": [
    {
      "from": 2040,
      "to": 2044,
      "share": 0.0011
    },
    {
      "from": 2045,
      "to": 2049,
      "share": 0.0416
    },
    {
      "from": 2050,
      "to": 2054,
      "share": 0.228
    },
    {
      "from": 2055,
      "to": 2059,
      "share": 0.3547
    },
    {
      "from": 2060,
      "to": 2064,
      "share": 0.2401
    },
    {
      "from": 2065,
      "to": 2069,
      "share": 0.0959
    },
    {
      "from": 2070,
      "to": 2074,
      "share": 0.0291
    },
    {
      "from": 2075,
      "to": 2079,
      "share": 0.0077
    },
    {
      "from": 2080,
      "to": 2084,
      "share": 0.0016
    },
    {
      "from": 2085,
      "to": 2089,
      "share": 0.0002
    },
    {
      "from": 2090,
      "to": 2094,
      "share": 0.0
    },
    {
      "from": 2095,
      "to": 2099,
      "share": 0.0
    },
    {
      "from": 2100,
      "to": 2104,
      "share": 0.0
    },
    {
      "from": 2101,
      "to": null,
      "share": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "branches": [
    {
      "key": "worn-out-cells",
      "name": "Worn-out cells",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2043,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "aged-cell-clearing-drug-beats-a-sham-in-a-controlled-trial",
          "name": "A drug that clears aged cells beats a sham treatment in a controlled trial",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2037,
          "latest": 2065,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "aged-cell-clearing-drug-relieves-knee-arthritis",
          "name": "A drug that clears aged cells relieves knee osteoarthritis",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2032,
          "likely": 2039,
          "latest": 2080,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "clearing-aged-cells-makes-old-animals-live-longer",
          "name": "Clearing aged cells makes old animals live longer",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2038,
          "likely": 2050,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "drug-clears-aged-cells-from-a-person",
          "name": "A drug clears aged cells from a person",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2038,
          "latest": 2060,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "immune-cells-engineered-to-kill-aged-cells",
          "name": "A person's immune cells are engineered to hunt down aged cells",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2036,
          "likely": 2046,
          "latest": 2095,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "damaged-dna",
      "name": "Damaged DNA",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2044,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "a-drug-lengthens-chromosome-ends-in-a-person",
          "name": "A drug lengthens the ends of chromosomes in a person",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2038,
          "likely": 2048,
          "latest": 2085,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-gene-is-edited-inside-a-persons-body",
          "name": "A gene is edited inside a person's body to stop an age-related disease",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2028,
          "likely": 2030,
          "latest": 2042,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "gene-therapy-lengthens-chromosome-ends-in-an-old-animal",
          "name": "A gene therapy lengthens the ends of chromosomes in an old animal, with no rise in cancer",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2036,
          "likely": 2044,
          "latest": 2110,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "premature-ageing-mutation-corrected-in-a-living-animal",
          "name": "The mutation behind a premature-ageing disease is corrected in a living animal",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2032,
          "likely": 2038,
          "latest": 2080,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "cell-settings",
      "name": "The cell's settings",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2044,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "a-cells-settings-are-rewritten-at-one-gene-in-a-person",
          "name": "The chemical marks on one gene are rewritten in a person, with no cut in the DNA",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2036,
          "latest": 2070,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-cocktail-of-ordinary-drugs-resets-cell-age",
          "name": "A mix of small-molecule drugs resets a cell's age without gene therapy",
          "stage": "idea-only",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2038,
          "likely": 2050,
          "latest": 2110,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-person-receives-cell-resetting-genes-in-a-trial",
          "name": "A person receives cell-resetting genes in a registered trial",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2033,
          "likely": 2040,
          "latest": 2075,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-persons-biological-age-reading-falls-after-treatment",
          "name": "A person's biological age, read from the marks on their DNA, falls after a treatment",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2028,
          "likely": 2042,
          "latest": 2085,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "partially-resetting-cells-reverses-ageing-in-an-animal",
          "name": "Partially resetting cells reverses ageing in a living animal",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2033,
          "likely": 2041,
          "latest": 2075,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "broken-proteins",
      "name": "Broken proteins and waste",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2023,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "antibody-clears-amyloid-from-the-brain-and-slows-decline",
          "name": "An antibody clears amyloid from the brain and slows the decline of Alzheimer's disease",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2023,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "drug-boosts-the-cells-recycling-of-worn-parts",
          "name": "A drug that boosts the cell's recycling of its worn parts improves an age-related function in people",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2033,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2095,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "drug-breaks-the-sugar-cross-links-that-stiffen-old-tissue",
          "name": "A drug breaks the sugar cross-links that stiffen old tissue",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2036,
          "likely": 2050,
          "latest": 2120,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "drug-stops-a-misfolded-protein-piling-up-in-the-heart",
          "name": "A drug stops a misfolded protein piling up in the heart and extends life",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2019,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "eye-drops-dissolve-the-clouded-protein-of-a-cataract",
          "name": "Eye drops dissolve the clouded protein of a cataract",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2040,
          "latest": 2120,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "energy-and-fuel",
      "name": "Energy and fuel sensing",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2028,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "a-drug-adds-healthy-years-to-a-life",
          "name": "A drug makes people live longer in good health",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2034,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2095,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-drug-is-approved-to-make-dogs-live-longer",
          "name": "A drug is approved to make dogs live longer",
          "stage": "idea-only",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2027,
          "likely": 2028,
          "latest": 2032,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-drug-renews-the-cells-power-plants-and-improves-muscle-in-older-people",
          "name": "A drug that renews the cell's power plants improves muscle in older people",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2039,
          "latest": 2085,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-weight-loss-drug-is-approved-to-prevent-heart-attacks-and-strokes",
          "name": "A weight-loss drug is approved to prevent heart attacks and strokes in people without diabetes",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2024,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "an-nad-raising-supplement-improves-a-function-in-a-controlled-trial",
          "name": "A supplement that raises a cell's NAD improves an age-related function in a controlled trial",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2032,
          "likely": 2042,
          "latest": 2090,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "metformin-delays-age-related-disease-in-people-without-diabetes",
          "name": "Metformin delays age-related disease in people who do not have diabetes",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2036,
          "likely": 2043,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "mitochondria-are-transplanted-into-a-person",
          "name": "Fresh mitochondria are transplanted into a person's failing tissue",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2033,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2095,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "rapamycin-improves-an-age-related-measure-in-older-people",
          "name": "A rapamycin-type drug improves an age-related measure in older people",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2039,
          "latest": 2080,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "replacing-parts",
      "name": "Replacing lost cells and parts",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2032,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "a-human-organ-is-grown-inside-an-animal",
          "name": "A human organ is grown inside an animal and transplanted into a person",
          "stage": "idea-only",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2040,
          "likely": 2060,
          "latest": 2160,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-persons-own-cells-are-grown-to-rebuild-a-worn-joint-surface",
          "name": "A person's own cells are grown outside the body and used to rebuild a worn joint surface",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2016,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "an-old-animals-blood-stem-cells-are-rejuvenated",
          "name": "An old animal's blood-making stem cells are made young again, and its immune system with them",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2036,
          "likely": 2048,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "cells-grown-from-stem-cells-restore-a-lost-organ-function",
          "name": "Cells grown from stem cells restore a lost organ function in people",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2030,
          "likely": 2032,
          "latest": 2046,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "heart-muscle-grown-from-stem-cells-is-grafted-onto-a-failing-heart",
          "name": "Heart muscle grown from stem cells is grafted onto a person's failing heart",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2038,
          "latest": 2070,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "lab-grown-organ-works-in-a-person-for-a-year",
          "name": "A printed or lab-grown organ works in a person for a year",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2032,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "organ-from-a-gene-edited-pig-keeps-a-person-alive",
          "name": "An organ from a gene-edited pig keeps a person alive",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2028,
          "likely": 2032,
          "latest": 2045,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "inflammation-and-signalling",
      "name": "Inflammation and the body's messaging",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2026,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "an-anti-inflammatory-drug-is-approved-to-prevent-heart-attacks",
          "name": "A drug that acts only on inflammation is approved to prevent heart attacks",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2023,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "blocking-one-messenger-protein-makes-old-animals-live-longer",
          "name": "Blocking one inflammatory messenger protein makes old animals live longer",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2034,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "replacing-a-persons-plasma-slows-an-age-related-disease",
          "name": "Replacing the liquid part of a person's blood slows an age-related disease",
          "stage": "in-clinical-use",
          "known": true,
          "year": 2026,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "young-blood-rejuvenates-an-old-animal",
          "name": "Young blood rejuvenates an old animal",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2035,
          "likely": 2048,
          "latest": 2110,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "young-gut-microbes-rejuvenate-an-old-animal",
          "name": "Gut microbes from a young animal rejuvenate an old one",
          "stage": "shown-in-animals",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2035,
          "likely": 2050,
          "latest": 2110,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "measuring-age",
      "name": "Measuring ageing",
      "required": true,
      "handled_when": 2,
      "median_handled_year": 2040,
      "leaves": [
        {
          "id": "a-blood-count-of-mitochondrial-dna-predicts-death-and-disease",
          "name": "A count of mitochondrial DNA in blood predicts a person's death and disease",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2031,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "first-pass"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-blood-test-predicts-a-persons-death-and-disease-better-than-their-age",
          "name": "A clock read from blood predicts a person's death and disease better than their age does",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2028,
          "likely": 2034,
          "latest": 2060,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-regulator-accepts-a-marker-of-ageing-as-proof-a-treatment-worked",
          "name": "A regulator accepts a marker of ageing as proof that a treatment slowed it",
          "stage": "idea-only",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2032,
          "likely": 2040,
          "latest": 2080,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-regulator-recognises-ageing-as-a-condition-a-drug-can-treat",
          "name": "A regulator recognises ageing itself as a condition a drug can be approved to treat",
          "stage": "idea-only",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2034,
          "likely": 2045,
          "latest": 2100,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "a-treatment-slows-a-biological-age-clock-in-a-controlled-trial",
          "name": "A treatment slows a biological age clock in a controlled trial",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2030,
          "likely": 2037,
          "latest": 2070,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        },
        {
          "id": "an-age-for-each-organ-is-read-from-blood-proteins",
          "name": "An age for each organ is read from the proteins in a person's blood",
          "stage": "first-human",
          "known": false,
          "earliest": 2029,
          "likely": 2036,
          "latest": 2070,
          "estimate_status": "reviewed"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "counts": {
    "leaves_counted": 45,
    "leaves_in_clinic_already": 6,
    "estimates_first_pass": 1,
    "estimates_first_pass_drawn": 1,
    "verify_entries": 0
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "computed_on": "2026-10-16",
      "median_year": 2058,
      "before_2050": 0.0266,
      "after_2100": 0.0,
      "p5": 2051,
      "p95": 2068,
      "branches": {
        "worn-out-cells": 2043,
        "damaged-dna": 2040,
        "cell-settings": 2044,
        "broken-proteins": 2023,
        "energy-and-fuel": 2039,
        "replacing-parts": 2029,
        "inflammation-and-signalling": 2042,
        "measuring-age": 2040
      }
    },
    {
      "computed_on": "2026-10-17",
      "median_year": 2058,
      "before_2050": 0.0335,
      "after_2100": 0.0,
      "p5": 2050,
      "p95": 2068,
      "branches": {
        "worn-out-cells": 2043,
        "damaged-dna": 2040,
        "cell-settings": 2044,
        "broken-proteins": 2023,
        "energy-and-fuel": 2028,
        "replacing-parts": 2029,
        "inflammation-and-signalling": 2042,
        "measuring-age": 2040
      }
    },
    {
      "computed_on": "2026-10-17",
      "median_year": 2058,
      "before_2050": 0.0409,
      "after_2100": 0.0,
      "p5": 2050,
      "p95": 2069,
      "branches": {
        "worn-out-cells": 2043,
        "damaged-dna": 2044,
        "cell-settings": 2044,
        "broken-proteins": 2023,
        "energy-and-fuel": 2028,
        "replacing-parts": 2032,
        "inflammation-and-signalling": 2026,
        "measuring-age": 2040
      }
    },
    {
      "computed_on": "2026-10-18",
      "median_year": 2058,
      "before_2050": 0.0427,
      "after_2100": 0.0,
      "p5": 2050,
      "p95": 2069,
      "branches": {
        "worn-out-cells": 2043,
        "damaged-dna": 2044,
        "cell-settings": 2044,
        "broken-proteins": 2023,
        "energy-and-fuel": 2028,
        "replacing-parts": 2032,
        "inflammation-and-signalling": 2026,
        "measuring-age": 2040
      }
    },
    {
      "computed_on": "2026-10-19",
      "median_year": 2058,
      "before_2050": 0.0427,
      "after_2100": 0.0,
      "p5": 2050,
      "p95": 2069,
      "branches": {
        "worn-out-cells": 2043,
        "damaged-dna": 2044,
        "cell-settings": 2044,
        "broken-proteins": 2023,
        "energy-and-fuel": 2028,
        "replacing-parts": 2032,
        "inflammation-and-signalling": 2026,
        "measuring-age": 2040
      }
    }
  ]
}